How does the probability of absenteeism or longevity affect the hiring practices at your organization?
Well since I stay home with my kids’ absenteeism and longevity are not an issue. Although I do joke with my kids sometimes that if they don’t start acting right I go buy an expensive life insurance policy on them. The 11-year-old gets it. Anyway, I think companies should be cautious when using probabilities to predict future occurrences. Let us not forget that probabilities can only predict the future according to past and present data. Probabilities must take into account future trends of economy and necessity of the employment. For instance, I don’t think construction companies should use pre-recession data of absenteeism and longevity to predict future trends in the aforementioned areas. After the housing market collapse and the recession I am sure that absenteeism will be much less common and longevity much more desirable, if not attainable. I am sure that there is some statistical way to factor these trends into a probability; I just have no idea how to go about doing it. Maybe that will be something that we learn later on in the class. Also, I am sure that companies readily use probabilities to decide hiring trends, as well as to affect pension plans, 401K’s, and retirement ages. Maybe if the U.S. government would have used some statistics we would have enough money to cover the costs of the baby boomers retiring. Now there’s a thought…
Aron, A., Aron, E., & Coups, E. (2006). Statistics for psychology (4th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson/Allyn Bacon.